Thursday, December 10, 2009

Shouldn't have bought Citibank

Good morning,

I felt tired and sick from working too hard training my new hires. It’s never easy talking for more than 6 hours last night on finance topics and explaining basic concepts, ideas and principles. Honestly I should confess that while training is the reason I am feeling tired, it’s the glasses of wine that cause me to feel sick. Too much red wine and a choppy night of US markets don’t make a good combination. It got worse when I see Citibank shares declining to $3.86 last night. This is the only stock I bought without the due diligence of complying with the KUTE’s principle for stock selection. I bought believing that the stock price was cheap because the price then of $4.00 was cheap compared with the 52 weeks high of more than $9.00. I should have applied what I have been teaching others to do so, i.e. to study and understand the company and not the prices. If only I had used KUTE stock selection procedure on this company, for I am sure it will definitely disqualify with the stringent requirements for it to appear on the selected screen. I lost quite a bit on this counter, and I am telling everyone that I am holding this stock long term for capital gain. Other than this undisciplined purchase, the rest of the stocks I traded with the application of KUTE’s selection process helped offset the losses I have from Citibank.

US markets moved higher after a choppy session trading within a narrow range caused by frequent swing of USD last night. So are the stocks that I have trading positions. NOV gained 0.68% to close at $41.68 with the stock trading at the range of $40.92 to $41.91. I added another position last night at $41.41, adding to the existing 4 positions I am currently long. 2 positions are currently in-the-money. The other stock I am holding DOX fell 1.15% to close at $27.58. The range was $27.42 to $27.89.

NE closed at $40.29, up 1.95%, ICUI lost 1.43% to close at $34.52 and HP gained 0.88% to close at $36.83. I am still holding on to my view that USD needs to continue to weaken for the Fed to increase interest rates. With reports indicating that the U.S. government is not yet ready to leave the financial system completely to itself when word surfaced that the $700 billion financial bailout plan, TARP, will likely be extended until October 2010, I am quietly confident that the interest rates will not be increased anytime sooner and USD will continue to be weak, and my positions will soon be profitable.

Have a great day!

Francies Cheng
BBus MAppliedFinance

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