Saturday, January 9, 2010

Week's performance evaluation

Good morning,

It’s time of the week to evaluate the stocks selected by KUTE again. Here are the performance evaluations of the forecast made last Friday and yesterday’s close:
DJIA was forecasted to continue its’ Bull Run, will trade within a broad range and was expected to end the week higher. The index closed at 10,428.05 last Friday and ended the session at $10,618.19.The range was between 10.655.60 and 10,430.69. The decision was to buy the selected stocks and sell when the targets were achieved.

Before I continue with the stock evaluations, I need to clarify myself regarding the targets. Firstly, I always use the percentage returns when I fixed my exit strategy and not the absolute dollar returns. It’s important because dollar returns are the most tempting factor to unwind our learned and controlled emotion to time the exit the trades. Let me explain. If assuming my students have bought a position with $1000, a $100 return for the day may not be attractive enough to take profit because $100 gain seems too little. However if it is calculated in term of percentage returns, it’s a whopping 10% a day! Assuming the returns are consistent at 10% a day and if we were to compound this rate of returns, the $1000 will be doubled in 7 days! Also, my returns are on the actual capital I used for the trade, not the full amount of money I deposited with the broking house, i.e. if I have deposit $100,000 with the broker and used $1000 to trade a stock, my capital used for determining the rate of return is $1000 and not the full amount of $100,000. There is no fixed rule to the required returns for my trades. Whether it’s 10% or 20% depends on the current trend, the company, and my ability to take higher risk within my 30-20-50 money management rules. Alright, let's look at the performance of the stocks selected by KUTE:

NOV Friday’s close was $44.09 and it closed at $47.11 last night. My position I bought on Thursday was squared at limit order last night with a decent profit to enjoy my weekend. This stock has made me money for the week with the positions closed on Tuesday for the purchase I made last week adding to the profits I had last night.

PDE Friday’s close was $31.91 and ended the week at $33.86, another stock I made money with the buying and selling within the week. PTI was $20.45 last Friday and closed at $21.53, NE was $40.70 and close last night at $44.87, DSX was $14.48 and ended the week with an impressive $16.09 and CAB Friday close was $14.26 and ended the week at $16.05.

All my positions were squared and I am looking forward to enjoy my gains with a good bottle of sake tonight. I’ll be back next Monday for the new recommendations for the stocks selected by KUTE.

Happy weekend!
Francies Cheng
BBus MAppliedFinance

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