Thursday, January 21, 2010

Liverpool won but US markets lost

Good morning,

It’s red. The correlation between Liverpool Football Club and the US markets continues. Ever since the positive correlation curse of Liverpool was broken, the markets were performing very well while the Reds’ kept playing badly. They were not expected to play well last night but they won, and the US markets ended the opposite direction. I am happy that they have won, but it’s not very enjoyable seeing my trading screen in red.

I had a meeting with the Chinese commerce yesterday to explore the possibilities of conducting investment seminars to educate the public, and during the discussion it was suggested that I should invite a “feng shui” master to be part of the investment program. Their idea is to have the master giving the market direction for 2010. I am appalled when they said that we could draw in more participants if the topic is included. It disturbing when I was told that the attendance for the last “Feng Shui prediction for stock market 2010” talk was overwhelming but the only half the hall was filled in the same venue for market outlook conducted by an investment professional. Amazing, isn’t it? Why bother about “feng shui”? Just follow the fortune of Liverpool! Don’t take this suggestion seriously. Do your homework seriously to choose the right companies to trade and you cannot go wrong overtime. While Liverpool has won their game last night, the game for the trades I am in is far from over, and I believe it will end in the black soon.

I see last night decline as an opportunity to increase the 30% of my 30-20-50 money management rules. The markets’ bull momentum failed to carry over as global participants reacted negatively to news that China's authorities reportedly ordered some banks to curb lending in a move suggestive of tighter monetary policy. The order precedes the release of China's fourth quarter GDP numbers, so many have inferred that the report will feature a strong upside reading. While many are worried that the forced tightening will affect world economy recovery, I believe that the action is good for longer term growth stability. I was concerned about the real estate bubble in China and if the central government can control the situation, it should be better for us.

DJIA ended last night at 10,603.15, down 1.14%. KUTE had forecasted the market to be volatile this week and suggested to take profits at lower target returns. The recommendation was to stay away for most of the stocks since there were not buying signals for most of the stocks that were filtered for its fundamentals and financials. With most of the stocks in the red and closed below last Friday’s close, it’s time again to review the technical for buying signals for trading opportunities. NOV closed 2.44% down at $45.93. I entered to buy a new position at $45.98 since it was way below last Friday’s close and its daily candle is a buy confirmed signal. NE lost 0.99% to close at $43.97, PDE ended the session at $32.12, down 2.28%, and TDW closed 2.02 down at $50.33. I didn’t buy into these shares because NE and TDW prices were above last Friday’s close and PDE daily has yet indicate a buy signal.

As for DSX, the stock lost 3.27% to close at $15.08. Since the weekly signals have not change and its’ daily candle is a “wait”, I decided to include this stock in my 30% list and bought positions at $15.37 and $15.33. My positions are in the red but I am confident that I will make my money from this stock soon.

Have a great day.

Francies Cheng
BBus MAppliedFinance

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