Good morning,
It’s finally the weekend and it is the day of the week that I always look forward to. It is the day that I evaluate my stock performance and fine tune KUTE’s stock selection process. Stock trading is dynamic and no system is rigidly fixed. Every day is a new learning experience to understand what causes the stock prices to advance or decline and decide if such factors should be included in or excluded from the stock selection process. Saturday is also the day that I can relax without having to read the financials early in the morning and write my summary to all my Investment Advisers. Most importantly I can sleep late on Sunday since this is the only day I take leave from writing this blog.
My friends at the gym asked me this morning if I had copied the stocks recommended by other websites and call it my own. I was sad to hear that but when they told me the reason they asked is because the writings were pretty good and they are following my blogs regularly, I am encouraged to continue. To be frank, there are occasions I thought of discontinuing the blog. After all, I have only one follower and I am not very sure if there are people reading my blog. Until my friend helped me to install the site meter and I realized the blog has many readers and some of them are from countries as far as USA. So if you are one of my readers, I would appreciate your contributions, be it agreeing or criticism since my key objective for this blog is for all traders to share their knowledge and methods so that we can all make money together.
Now let’s look at KUTE’s forecast and the selected stocks performance for the week. We will compare the prices at the beginning of the week and the closing prices last night. DJIA opened at 9712.13 at the beginning of the week and close at 10,023.12 last night to end the week at 3% higher. The lowest it went was 9647.06 and highest was 10,077.08. It traded broadly within the forecasted range. So KUTE was right with the volatility of the market its’ forecast that the market has a possibility to decline was not correct. As I mentioned last night that every trading session is a learning process and looking back at where it got wrong, I realized that Cycle Trend forecasts within the normal bell curve and special events, e.g. earnings and economic reports are outliers that will distort the forecast. Candle was right with its call for confirmation after doji for the future price direction. I will keep this in mind in future analysis.
The 2 stocks that passed through all stages of the KUTE’s selection criteria, CAH opened at $28.34 and closed at $29.50 and NBL opened at $65.63 and close at $66.74. The stocks that passed through the value filtering but did not filtered through the more stringent criteria of financial fundamentals and technical, DRIV opened at $22.83 and closed at $25.42, OSG opened at $39.25 and closed at $36.87, BHI opened $42.07 and closed $41.18, SKX opened $21.82 and closed at $22.80 and WTS opened $28.25 and closed at $30.25. So I was right for the 2 selected stocks and I missed out on DRIV, SKX and WTS but was fortunate not to buy OSG and BHI. Should I get upset with the missed opportunities? If I do I am allowing emotion to control my trade and deviate from the trading plan and rules of KUTE systems. Well, no system can be 100% accurate but if it is accurate for more than 80% of the time, it should good enough to make money consistently. Perhaps I should include stocks that both Cycle trend and Candles contradict as stocks to watch and wait for confirmation to buy. If both agree, the stocks will be a strong buy without the need for confirmation.
As for the stock that was excluded from the list and held by me, PTEN opened at $15.70 and ended the session at $15.78, and I am still holding on to the 2 positions because it has not achieved my target returns. I am not too worried because the stock’s fundamentals are sound.
Have a great weekend and I am excited looking forward to another session of KUTE’s recommendations. See you next Monday morning.
Francies Cheng
BBus MAppliedFinance
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