Good morning,
I remembered having coffee with the top economist in one of the stock broking house and we were talking about how accurate some analysts and gurus' market predictions are. He told me that anyone can be as accurate because none can pin point the exact day the predicted price move can happen. The trick is to announce the predicted change and wait for the change to happen. The rule is, if it does not happen, keep quiet and if it does, tell the whole world how good you are. He told me that he did the same because no one can remember all the wrong calls and one good prediction is enough to be exalted. This is also what I learned from my favorite lecturer in Options and Futures that over time good stocks should appreciate in value but the question of when it can fulfill its potential is unknown. The truth is no one really knows what can happen tomorrow, so all technical and fundamental analysis cannot help much. The best method is to look for good companies with good management, business and marketing plan and financially strong. Over time these companies should appreciate and grow and tell the whole worl your stock picks.
So it time for me to shout. In mu previous blogs, I had predicted that USD will continue to depreciate, Gold price will continue to soar, Dubai problem is the good for buying opportunity and the economy and companies earning reports will be good, and I am very correct. If only I had told the whole world!
So it time for me to shout. In mu previous blogs, I had predicted that USD will continue to depreciate, Gold price will continue to soar, Dubai problem is the good for buying opportunity and the economy and companies earning reports will be good, and I am very correct. If only I had told the whole world!
So US market advanced again last night and I enjoyed it. My 2 positions for NOV were sold when it hit my limits at $44.35. NOV closed 2.46% higher at $44.08. The other stock I am holding, FRX gained 1.14% to close at $31.01. I am still holding and the position is still in the money. GIB closed 0.4% higher at $12.48 and SIM closed 3.43% higher at $8.14. I will be looking at NOV again tonight for buying signals.
Have a good day.
Francies Cheng
BBus MAppliedFinance
Hi Francis,
ReplyDeletecan i find out from you , when u said u have taken 1 position, meaning u bought under CFD?
NOV: When you enter @ $43.13 & $42.49 meaning your ave is approx $42.81. You take profit at $44.35.
Meaning you exit strategy is around 3.59%
Is this how we plan for your exit strategy?
Thanks & have a good day.
Lawrence
If you have read my previous blog, I alway trade using CFDs and I normally calculate my returns based on capital used, not price appreciation. ie. at $42.81, my capital is $4.3 and if profit is $1.00, my return is 20% on capital. That's my exit strategy during time of volatility. There are stocks I bought for longer term, based on my 30-20-50 rules. In investment, it's important to look at ROC and not price appreciation, afterall you want to increase your capital, not speculative gains...hope this helps
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